TRT Market Reports

In an effort to ensure fair pricing and protect consumers, the Ministry of Trade in Cameroon has initiated a price control operation on rice, a staple food in the country. The operation, led by control teams from the Ministry of Trade, targeted markets in the city of Bafoussam on April 19, 2024. The primary objective of the operation was to verify whether rice vendors were adhering to the new price regulations set by the Minister of Trade.

Following the recent rebound of the naira against the dollar, the price of a 50 kilogramme bag of rice has dropped to an average of N67,000 in Lagos, Abuja, Ogun, and others, from about N90,000 in February 2024. In communities close to the borders, our correspondents gathered that the staple was selling at a much lower rate compared to what was obtained in the cities.

Following poor road network and other logistics challenges, about 272 cottage rice mills would remain idle and unable to process 7.5 million metric tonnes of paddy rice valued at N1.13 trillion for local consumption in 2024. The price of paddy per kilogramme in the country is N1,500, 75 kilogrammes, N75,000 and a tonnes N1.5 million in Kano, Kebbi, Kaduna, Niger and Ebonyi states.

Recent electoral polls continue to suggest that no single political party will win an outright majority in South Africa's 2024 national elections due to take place on 29 May. This creates uncertainty regarding the national government, which will emerge from any possible coalition discussions. 

From October 2023 to March 2024, rising temperatures and a severe lack of precipitation have intensified and expanded progressively across Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Namibia, as well as most of Zambezi basin and southern Madagascar. Record-high temperatures dating back to 1960 have been exacerbating the situation. 

There are many challenges facing Nigeria’s agricultural sector in Nigeria. Recent reports indicate a concerning trend of agricultural programmes failing to meet their intended objective. Despite government investments and initiatives aimed at boosting agricultural productivity, the sector continues to struggle, leaving many farmers disillusioned and vulnerable.

Stakeholders in the rice processing sub-sector are worried that the current biting food scarcity in the country would get worse next year unless the government of President Bola Tinubu properly engaged rice processors in its policy actions.

Nigerians have taken to social media to rejoice about a significant price shift in the price of a bag of rice amidst the Federal Government's efforts to stabilise commodity prices. The reports of a price reduction from N80,000 to N60,000 were a huge relief among Nigerians who have struggled to buy basic food items in the past year.

In a chat with reporters in Abuja yesterday, an executive member of the Rice Processors Association of Nigeria (RIPAN), Mohammed Abba Liman, said “the government needs to provide serviceable loans to real and identifiable rice processors in each state of the federation” and declared that “it is not in the interest of the federal government to encourage the importation of rice…

In his bid to make Jigawa state a bedrock for massive wheat producrion, Jigawa state Governor,  Mallam Umar Namadi,  has embarked on a  study tour to Ethiopia with a high-level delegation comprising key aides on agricultural matters, officials, and professionals from the state’s Ministry of Agriculture and relevant agencies.

The mounting pressure on the Federal Government to scrap the proposed biosecurity tax continues to build as Grain Producers Australia and other industry groups make submissions and statements to the Senate Inquiry into the legislation. A Farm Online article has highlighted staunch opposition from GPA and misgivings from Grain Growers regarding consultation…

FIGURES released by the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry reveal the grain industry will contribute $12.25 million under the proposed Biosecurity Protection Levy, the most for any commodity impacted by the legislation. This figure is out of the total revenue of $51.8M that DAFF estimates will be raised by the BPL if it comes into force on July 1.

Major supermarkets need to be held more accountable for their actions, the federal agriculture minister has declared, expressing confidence suppliers will soon secure better deals with grocery chains. After the heads of Woolworths and Coles were grilled in fiery parliamentary hearings, Murray Watt said progress was being made on farmers receiving a fair price for their produce.

Farmers have been urged to get involved in discussions about their industry to “safeguard their futures.” The CSIRO, Australia’s national science agency, has published the Ag2050 Scenarios Report, to try to identify what Australian farming will look like in 2050, with perhaps the most interesting development being the consolidation of what it describes as “…regional agricultural capitals.”

Australia’s farm chemicals regulator is taking too long to approve new products, leading to billions of dollars in preventable crop losses for one of the world’s biggest agricultural exporters, industry groups say. Australia is a major supplier of goods from wheat and barley to cotton and wine.

In the week ending 17 April 2024, dry conditions were experienced across much of Australia. Isolated areas across cropping regions in Western Australia, northern New South Wales and southern Queensland recorded up to 25 millimetres of rainfall. Dry conditions in large areas of Queensland would have allowed resumption of summer crop harvests.

While tariffs were in place, AEGIC continued to engage with the Chinese barley industry to help them stay connected and informed, providing information on new varieties, accreditation developments and industry updates. In late (September) 2023, following the removal of tariffs, AEGIC hosted two major Australian Barley Technical Conferences in Beijing and Guangzhou.

A newly released Rabobank annual outlook has found Australia’s agricultural sector is “moving confidently into 2024”. Rabobank’s recent agricultural outlook says a combination of better-than-expected seasonal conditions and lower input costs has helped set up the sector for a strong year.

Australian farmers must continue to adapt to a changing climate or risk seeing their profits halve by 2050, say CSIRO experts. A new report from Australia's national science agency has been released after examining what a sustainable future for agriculture looks like.

A state government-backed taskforce will assess drought and mental health support for WA farmers who face the prospect of culling herds as they experience one of the driest autumns on record. The announcement comes as producers who sweltered through the hottest summer on record endure soaring feed costs as the hot dry weather flows into autumn.

‘The recent surge in farming protests underscores the urgency of this issue, highlighting the need for the European Union to prioritise rural areas and agriculture in its policy agenda’ Copa and Cogeca, the twin apex for European farmers and their co-ops, have released a manifesto listing seven priorities for the European Commission, as EU countries prepare to head for the polls.

The European Union's crop monitoring service MARS on Monday raised its forecast for most cereals and rapeseed, saying warm and wet spring weather had benefited crops in most parts of the bloc. Persistent rain in France, the EU's largest grain producer, earlier this month had raised analyst and farmer concern of further production losses.

Polish MEP Marek Belka brought together prominent figures to discuss the state and prospects of cooperation between Poland and Ukraine in farming. The participants attempted to analyse the reasons for the current situation and find mutually acceptable solutions.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategic use of 'grain diplomacy' is reshaping global trade dynamics, potentially shifting the balance of agricultural market power more in favor of Moscow. Amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions, the European Union has found grappling with the implications of Russia's maneuvering, which includes significant increases in Russian grain exports.

For months, Europe has been rocked by protests as farmers decry high costs and low prices, in addition to what they call unfair competition from Ukraine, and the constraints of environmental regulations. EU elites are worried that the farmers' movement will boost anti-establishment parties in the European elections this June.

Next Thursday 25th April, Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) will be asked to cast their vote on the European Commission recent proposal to alter the EU’s Common Agriculture Policy (CAP), one of the chunkiest and most budget-heavy pieces of legislations.   foodwatch, alongside numerous other civil society groups, has opposed the changes proposed…

The work of Russian agricultural companies has not been significantly disrupted by heavy flooding in several regions, Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev said on Tuesday, easing fears about possible crop destruction. The area of spring sowing is approaching 5 million hectares, a slightly higher pace than last year, the minister added.

As Europe seeks to address the threat of climate change, it's imposing more rules on farmers like Ubels. He spends a day a week on bureaucracy, answering the demands of European Union and national officials who seek to decide when farmers can sow and reap, and how much fertilizer or manure they can use.

"Grain production in Ukraine has remained unprofitable since the Russia's invasion, and this is expected to translate into decreased grain area for MY (marketing year) 2024/25. With CY (calendar year) 2024 yields forecast below the previous near-record-breaking CY2023, the total grain MY2024/25 production volume is forecast to be lower than for the previous marketing year.

Lithuania suspended regular grain imports in May 2023, and the last delivery took place in July. The first supply since that break was in February: 12.2 thousand tonnes worth 1.95m Euros were imported. Latvia has also increased imports: at the end of winter, it bought 58.8 thousand tonnes of grain from Russia and paid 10m Euros…

Brazilian farmers in Mato Grosso state have cut the area planted with second corn this season by 10% as low prices push them to cultivate alternative crops, a trend they say is likely to continue. Brazil’s second corn must be sowed immediately after the soybean harvest to avoid the dry and colder season.

The Argentine government said it plans to invest approximately $550 million to build a new grain port in the Rosario region. The region is considered a vital agricultural center for Argentina, accounting for more than 80% of the country’s agricultural and agro-industrial exports.

Given the record wheat yields the last two years, farmers in Uruguay are expected to plant more in the 2024-25 season, but total production is expected to drop slightly, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The Mexican government has announced a postponement in the implementation of its ban on genetically modified (GMO) corn imports from the United States. Originally scheduled to take effect in March 2024, the ban has now been extended to address concerns surrounding the country’s agricultural output and food security.

Argentina's 2024 exports of soybean, corn, wheat, sunflower, and barley have been projected to reach barely US$ 29.3 billion, which would represent a US$ 5.7 billion recovery from 2023 but a US$ 1.7 billion slump compared to the last five years' average, the Grain Stock Exchange in Rosario (BCR) announced in its latest Guía Estratégica para el Agro (GEA) report.

Soybeans were higher on fund and technical buying. Soybeans are watching the probable harvest delays in parts of Argentina and Brazil, along with potential quality issues. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers are out May 10th, with CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil slated for the 14th.

Argentina grains exports should value just shy of $30 billion this year, boosted by higher output than a drought-hit 2023 but tempered by lower global prices and an insect plague that has dented corn production. The $29.3 billion in exports seen for this year is below the recent five-year average, the major Rosario grains exchange said in a report on Friday.

For centuries, farmers used almanacs to try to understand and predict weather patterns. Now, a new crop of Latin American startups is helping do that with artificial intelligence, promising a farming revolution in agricultural giants like Brazil, the world’s biggest exporter of soybeans, corn and beef.

Argentina corn farmers had high hopes for this season’s harvest after near-perfect weather conditions ended years of drought. A record crop would also bode well for President Javier Milei’s plan to turn around the nation’s embattled economy. Now a bug is getting in the way. Corn farmers are seeing their fields ravaged by a plague of leafhopper insects.

The significance of Brazil's corn and soybean production is a topic that deeply intrigues us and fuels ongoing debates. Just six months ago, delays in soybean planting caused a spike in soybean prices, only for the market to retract as conditions improved. Such estimate fluctuations and discussions are a familiar sight among our southern neighbors. Yet, what's particularly fascinating now is the perspective offered by both the USDA and Conab.

Brent crude futures have surged 13.4% this year so far to $87.26 per barrel, propelled by escalating tensions in the Middle East, OPEC supply cuts, attacks on energy infrastructure between Ukraine and Russia, and increased oil demand from major consuming nations, all of which have tightened the market.

In 2024, Kazakhstan plans to reduce the area under wheat by an average of 430 thousand hectares. By 2028, the area under this crop should decrease by 855 thousand hectares. The Ministry of Agriculture of Kazakhstan explains such plans by the need for diversification and moving away from monoculture.

Weather conditions in Türkiye have been favourable to winter crop growth.  Yield forecasts for winter crops are well above the 5-year average but below last year’s level. Overall, crops are in good condition, notably in south-eastern regions.

Teh spokesman for Iran’s House of Industry, Mine and Trade said the export of food and agricultural products from the country in the previous Iranian calendar year (ended March 19, 2024) registered a 20 percent growth in value compared to a year earlier. Rouhollah Latifi said $6.3 billion of animal, fishery, agricultural and food products were exported from the country…

This initiative aims to enhance rice productivity, reduce water usage, and ensure food security in Egypt. During a Wednesday meeting held to discuss the status of rice cultivation and innovative mechanisms to boost production, Madbouly emphasized the strategic importance of rice as a staple food for Egyptian citizens and a key economic crop.

Kazakhstan has for nearly two weeks been grappling with the worst flooding in living memory after very large snow falls melted swiftly amid heavy rain over land already waterlogged before winter. Swathes of northern Kazakhstan were flooded again on Monday (15 April) as melt waters swelled the tributaries of the world's seventh longest river system, forcing more than 125,000 people to flee their homes.

Any conflict in the Middle East could significantly affect crude oil prices, given that a majority of the world's crude oil supply originates from this region. The geopolitical instability in the Middle East has historically been a key factor driving volatility in oil markets. 

Egypt’s Minister of Agriculture El Sayed El Quseir, announced Monday that Egyptian agricultural exports exceeded 2.2 million tons of agricultural products in the first quarter of 2024, amounting to about $1.5 billion, an increase of $300 million over the same period of the previous year.

Wheat imports for Jordan are estimated to reach 1.2 million tonnes in 2024-25 as the government begins filling its strategic grain reserves to mitigate inflationary shocks caused by geopolitical crises, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Iran’s rain of drones and missiles may have caused little damage to Israel. However, the impact of an escalation in West Asia could be widespread. Market watchers believe it could lead to rising oil prices as well as impact trade and travel plans. Iran stepped out of the shadows on Saturday (13 April) and launched an unprecedented attack against Israel.

Uruguayan wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 is forecast at 1.3 million tons, 260,000 tons lower than the previous crop season which saw record high yields.

In MY 2024/25, milled rice production is projected to reach 1.2 million metric tons (MMT), reflecting a five percent increase from MY 2023/24.

In MY 2024/25, EU grain production is anticipated to exceed the previous season’s levels and amount to 274 MMT.

Hait’s rice imports for marketing year July 2024 through June 2025 (MY 2024/2025) are forecast at 475,000 metric tons (MT), marginally higher compared to the previous marketing period driven by ongoing challenges to increase local production.

Argentine wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 is forecast at 16.8 million tons, 1 million tons higher than the previous weather-affected season.

Outstanding export sales and exports by country, region and marketing year

Commodity Futures Price Quotes For US Dollar Index (ICE Futures)

Latest futures price quotes

Latest futures price quotes 

Rice export prices decreased 1-3 percent as the Thai baht weakened.

Grain traders and ingredient buyers were heading into the 2024 season with uncertainty amid questions about the corn, soybean, spring wheat and total planted area projected in the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) March 28 Prospective Plantings report. Many expect significant changes to be reflected in the June 28 Acreage report, depending on spring planting weather…

Some lawmakers say they expect movement on the farm bill next month. Republican Congresswoman Ashley Hinson of Iowa tells Brownfield a draft of the legislation is expected soon. “We’re moving forward with some compromised language in the farm bill,” she said.

While there are scores of variables, such as weather, commodity prices, crop rotations, politics and equipment malfunctions, that may hinder Arkansas’ rice farmers, there is one constant that growers can count on. The state will continue to rank first in the U.S. in rice production. California is the second-leading rice producer in the country…

India has opened up its market to the American farming industry in as many as 12 different categories, a top Biden administration trade official told lawmakers on Wednesday. However, Senator Ron Wyden raised concerns about India's wheat subsidies distorting prices and hurting American farmers. He stressed the importance of enforcing trade rules to protect American workers and businesses.

The leaders of the Senate Finance Committee told U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai in a hearing Wednesday U.S. agriculture needs a real trade agenda. Ranking Member Mike Crapo from Idaho referenced a letter sent by commodity groups to USTR this week and said dispute settlement reform is also needed “so we can open markets for them.”

Profit is growing further out of reach for U.S. wheat farmers and many do not expect to break even in 2024 as ample global supply keeps prices around their lowest in nearly four years at the same time costs including equipment and transport remain high. The current state of the U.S. wheat market will hit winter wheat farmers in the Great Plains hard.

The head of the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture says the Biden administration has to step up its efforts to increase demand for US ag goods. Ted McKinney says he respects the administration for what it is trying to do. “There is a lot you can do just to enforce existing trade agreements or existing WTO compliance,” he says. 

US Trade Representative Katherine Tai said on Tuesday that India's decision to remove retaliatory tariffs on several US products has improved access to chickpeas, lentils, almonds, walnuts, and apples and is benefiting farmers across the country.

Following two consecutive years of decline (see Figure 1), United States rice production increased to roughly 2.9 million acres in 2023. In 2022 and 2023, the world was consuming more rice, which showed up in the long grain rice Marketing Year Average Prices (MYAP) of $16.70/cwt and $15.7/cwt, respectively. Production increases in 2023 (see Figure 1) followed 2022 high prices that were last seen around harvest of 2013.

Those who know little about production agriculture will often ask us why we have a farm safety net in the United States. While there are several justifications to choose from, one of the most notable is that farm policy is designed to help level the playing field for U.S. agricultural producers in the global marketplace. In this article, we illustrate the case of rice.

Rising food prices around the world may finally be seeing a bottom this year. According to Oxford Economics, global food prices are expected to decline in 2024, offering some relief for shoppers. “Our baseline forecast is for world food commodity prices to register an annual decline this year, reducing pressure on food retail prices further downstream,”…

The Biden administration will allocate $1 billion in Commodity Credit Corporation funding for emergency international food assistance. Approximately $950 million of that will be used purchase, ship and distribute American-made wheat, rice, sorghum, lentils, chickpeas, dry peas, vegetable oil, cornmeal, navy beans, pinto beans and kidney beans. 

The Economic Research Service (ERS) of the US Department of Agriculture said in its Rice Outlook Report on April 15 that “over the past month, quotes for trading prices for most grades of regular (neither parboiled nor aromatic) whole grain milled rice from Thailand decreased 6% to 7%, mostly due to the weakening of the Thai baht and the beginning of the dry-season crop entering the export market.”

On 19 April, Russian troops hit the port of Pivdennyi in Ukraine’s southern Odesa Oblast, destroying grain storage facilities and foodstuffs they contained, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other officials. Later, the Ministry of Restoration stated that as a result of the attack on the port of Odesa, the Russian military destroyed agricultural products intended for Asia and Africa.

While shoppers battle with the cost of food at the check-out, farmers around the world are expected to plant fewer crops this year, largely because the cost of growing some produce is higher than its potential value. Global wheat and corn prices have halved since record peaks in 2022, but the cost of essential inputs such as fertiliser remain historically high…

National feed wheat trader, Cameron Curry, gives a detailed overview and technical update on the current grain markets.

In the paper “News Event-Driven Forecasting of Commodity Prices,” NYU Stern Professor Srikanth Jagabathula, along with co-authors Sunandan Chakraborty (Indiana University), Lakshminarayanan Subramanian (NYU Courant Institute), and Ashwin Venkataraman (UT Dallas), looks for a solution to more accurately forecast commodity prices given the volatility of real-world events that impact those prices.

Russia intends to establish a “grain exchange” with BRICS nations, aspiring to use this trade alliance of nine emerging countries to challenge Western dominance in agricultural trade. While the officially declared purpose of the inter-bloc grain exchange is to facilitate trade between BRICS member states, analysts say that the new alliance actually aims to become an analogue of the Organization…

A cooperation agreement by the Philippines, the United States and Japan will change the dynamic in the South China Sea and the region, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said on Friday, while seeking to assure China it was not a target. “I think the trilateral agreement is extremely important,” Marcos told a press conference…

Global shipping disruptions continue to impact grain merchandisers. CHS CEO Jay Debertin says the Baltimore bridge collapse is affecting the movement of ag commodities, but not to the degree of the Panama and Suez canals. “Two shortcuts around the world for many ag commodities, and they aren’t working smoothly right now for different reasons.

Agriculture Minister Dr Md Abdus Shahid today laid emphasis on increasing high-yielding rice cultivation across the country to boost rice production aiming to export the staple food after meeting domestic demand.

There are many myths about energy and the economy. In this post I explore the situation surrounding some of these myths. My analysis strongly suggests that the transition to a new Green Economy is not progressing as well as hoped. Green energy planners have missed the point that our physics-based economy favors low-cost producers.

When she ventured into rice farming more than ten years ago, Grace Okello was optimistic that the crop would be the game-changer to transform her economic fortunes. And like the other farmers, she focused on the local seeds that most farmers in Bunyala and its environs have always relied on.

Philippine Rice Research Institute (PhilRice) is partnering with an inter-governmental, non-profit organization in identifying a potential biocontrol agent that may help stave off infestations of fall armyworm (FAW).

Rice is the most important staple food in the world, and its management is therefore of vital importance. Rice management of the people of Kasepuhan Sinarresmi, Sukabumi Regency West Java, Indonesia is symbolized in cultural practices of farming.

The International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) and the International Cooperation and Development Fund (TaiwanICDF) signed a cooperation agreement to implement the Capacity Building for Sustainable and Low-Carbon Rice Innovations in Southeast Asia (Cabin) project.

Researchers at the University of Geneva (UNIGE), in collaboration with teams at ETH Zurich and Taiwan's National Chung Hsing University (NCHU), have achieved a significant advance in the fight against vitamin B1deficiency, frequently associated with a rice-based diet.

Rice has become a big part of Ghanaians' daily diet. The country consumes about 1.45 million tons a year—but produces only 987,000 tons, approximately 68% of that. Efforts to produce more rice often involve providing improved seeds and fertilizers for farmers to increase their farm size. This results in increased labor-intensive work for smallholder farmers.

US agriculture groups are urging government officials to deny a request for zero emissions standards for freight locomotives in California, saying such regulations pose “a significant danger” to US agriculture and the supply chain. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) is proposing an “In-Use Locomotive Regulation” that would mandate by 2030 the use of only zero-emissions locomotives in California.

“Russia and Ukraine are selling their wheat at below production costs. I've suspected this and we've suspected that for a long time, but men of course they are trying to fund the war. But it matters because a market like Nigeria is one where we have had a strong market share for many, many years.